The traditionally bumper back-to-school shopping season is almost upon us. Savvy parents are already deep into school supply checklists and forward-thinking marketers had their campaigns ready before “Liberation Day” when the tariffs were announced.
Despite the economic flux over the last few years, back-to-school spending has risen year-on-year, topping $35BN in 2024 and cementing itself at the second largest retail season after the holidays. But in 2025, it’s coming with an extra layer of math homework: tariffs. And shoppers are crunching those numbers in real time. According to our latest Tariff Survey, shoppers are watching prices like hawks, delaying purchases, and ruthlessly hunting for deals. So how can brands still win the schoolyard—and the shopping cart? Let’s break it down.
Tariffs Are Making Parents Rethink Everything
Here’s the top line: 29% of U.S. consumers expect to spend less this back-to-school season due to tariffs or inflation. Over a third (34%) are focusing more on discounts, and 28% plan to stick strictly to the essentials.
Translation? This isn’t just cautious budgeting, it’s a reshaping of shopping behavior. Consumers aren’t just hitting pause on the extra pair of sneakers, they’re questioning the whole cart. 15% are delaying big-ticket items, and 31% plan no change… yet, which means there’s still room to influence decisions.
And while school supply prices have quietly crept up, 17% of shoppers have already noticed significant price increases on items like pens, notebooks, and backpacks. That makes value-focused messaging and pricing strategies mission-critical.
Deal-Seeking Is the New Default Behavior
Forget window shopping, today’s parents are pulling every lever to find the best bang for their buck. Here’s what they’re doing:
– 40% are visiting websites directly to compare prices
– 24% are using browser extensions to track discounts
– 26% are leaving items in carts in hopes of scoring a follow-up offer
– 23% are subscribing to texts or emails for that sweet discount code
This isn’t just frugality, it’s strategy. Consumers might not understand the machinations of identity resolution, but like Pavlov’s dogs, they know that their digital breadcrumbs have power. They’re using them as a bargaining chip to trigger discounts, freebies, or better shipping deals.
That means brands that rely on traditional “blast and hope” strategies? They’re going to get left on read.
Email & Text: The Real MVPs of Conversion
Shoppers don’t want spam. They want savings. Half (50%) prefer receiving personalized offers via email, and 29% favor text/SMS. If you’re not showing up there with relevant content, you’re not showing up at all.
So if a parent adds a $60 backpack to their cart and leaves it there overnight? Don’t waste that intent. A timely, personalized reminder (with a little discount nudge) can turn abandonment into a conversion.
That’s where Wunderkind comes in. Brands using Wunderkind’s identity-powered triggered messaging are seeing 6–11% of total digital revenue during peak seasons. It’s not magic—it’s matching unknown site visitors to real people, then sending relevant messages exactly when they’re most likely to buy.
Tariffs Are Impacting More Than the Cart—They’re Changing the Calendar
Economic stress doesn’t just affect what people buy—it shifts when they buy. 42% of consumers say they’re traveling much less this summer due to economic uncertainty. That’s a signal: more people are at home, online, and ready to be marketed to earlier than you think.
Back-to-school shopping used to ramp in August, now early-bird shoppers are hunting for exclusive pre-sales and limited-time promos in July. Don’t wait until everyone’s sharpening pencils, by then, the best carts are already checked out.
Final Bell: 5 Tips to Make Your Back-to-School Campaigns Grade-A
1. Shoppers are ready: Be there with early-bird sales and VIP access to beat your competitors to the wallet.
2. Prioritize first-party data collection: With cookies crumbling and ad costs soaring, owning the customer relationship is everything. Use identity solutions like Wunderkind to recognize anonymous visitors and convert them into contacts.
3. Trigger high-intent messages: A kid-sized sneaker left in a cart? That’s not just a miss, it’s money left behind. Trigger real-time browse/cart abandonment messages across email and text.
4. Lean into school-supply pricing: Backpacks, pencils, and lunchboxes might not have the highest margin, but they’re your best foot in the door. Use them to drive traffic and win price-sensitive shoppers.
5. Make email and text your core revenue channels: These channels don’t just work—they outperform. Brands using Wunderkind email and text are consistently seeing up to 6.3% of total digital revenue during back-to-school.
Ready to Make 2025 Your Highest-Earning Back-to-School Season Yet?
Consumers are changing their shopping behavior. Brands that recognize those shifts, and respond with relevant, timely, personalized communication will win.
Check out the full U.S. Tariffs: Consumer Impact Report, June 2025 report to learn how tariffs are transforming American shopping habits in real time, uncovering which segments are most affected, how price sensitivity is reshaping loyalty, and what brands must do to earn trust and drive results in a value-driven market.
