Black Friday / Cyber Monday 2026

Black Friday and Cyber Monday shoppers are heading into 2026 with a striking combination of spending ambition and value consciousness.

Nearly half (46%) of U.S. consumers surveyed say they plan to spend more during BFCM than they did last year, including 22% who expect to spend significantly more. Yet that does not necessarily signal carefree consumer confidence. Inflation and rising prices are influencing 41% of spending plans, while 27% cite a desire to save money and 24% point to concerns about the economy.

That tension is one of the central findings from Wunderkind's BFCM 2026 consumer research: consumers may be prepared to spend, but they are also becoming more deliberate about extracting value from every purchase.

For retailers, that changes the challenge. Peak season isn't simply about attracting demand. It's about recognizing intent, demonstrating value and giving shoppers a compelling reason to convert with your brand.

Shoppers Aren't Passively Waiting for Deals

Consumers have become active participants in the promotional game. Forty percent say they typically add products to their carts and leave them there in hopes of receiving a follow-up offer. More than a third (36%) subscribe to email or text alerts in exchange for a discount, while 31% repeatedly visit the same product or site to try to trigger a remarketing offer. One in five even report using multiple email addresses or identities to access first-time-buyer incentives.

These behaviors make a broader point: a shopper who leaves without purchasing hasn't necessarily lost interest. In some cases, abandonment may be part of the purchase strategy.

That makes behavioral signals particularly valuable during BFCM. Product views, repeat visits, carts and engagement can help retailers distinguish between casual traffic and shoppers moving closer to a decision. Rather than responding with another sitewide blast, brands have an opportunity to use identity and behavioral intelligence to trigger more relevant customer journeys around demonstrated intent.

Attention and Conversion Are Two Different Problems

Another finding should challenge how retailers think about their BFCM media plans.

Social media ads are the channel most likely to get shoppers' attention when brands promote BFCM offers, cited by 23%. But when someone doesn't buy immediately, a different trigger rises to the top: 34% say a price-drop notification is most likely to bring them back.

Email reminders and loyalty rewards or bonus points follow at 23% each. Retargeted ads, by comparison, are cited by just 5%. The implication isn't that one channel should replace another. It's that different channels can perform different jobs.

Retailers should distinguish acquisition from conversion. Paid and social media can create awareness, while identified shopper behavior can provide signals for when owned channels should take over. That creates an opportunity to use fewer, more effective touches , and potentially avoid spending repeatedly to reach consumers who could be converted through email or SMS. This aligns with Wunderkind's broader approach to using identity and behavioral data to improve both owned-channel activation and media efficiency.

Marketplaces Will Dominate Transactions, So Brands Need to Earn the Direct Relationship

The competitive challenge becomes even clearer when consumers say where they expect to shop.

Nearly half (48%) expect to make most purchases through online marketplaces, while 42% expect to buy through online retailers such as Walmart, Costco or Target. Just 14% cite brand websites.

Convenience is the leading reason consumers prefer marketplaces and online retailers (45%), followed by competitive pricing (38%). But direct brand relationships have their own advantages. Consumers who prefer buying directly cite better prices (43%), loyalty rewards (31%), exclusive products or perks (30%), faster shipping (29%) and greater trust (27%).

The lesson is bigger than "discount more." Brands need to give consumers a reason to buy direct that marketplaces cannot easily replicate. That could mean exclusivity, loyalty value, service, relevance or a more personalized experience, alongside competitive economics.

And the opportunity extends beyond Cyber Monday. BFCM can be an acquisition moment, but the greater prize is turning a seasonal transaction into an identifiable customer relationship that can inform more relevant engagement and future purchases.

AI Is Entering the Journey, but Shoppers Still Want Control

AI is also becoming part of shopping behavior: 51% of respondents say they have already used AI tools frequently or occasionally to help them shop.

But comfort is concentrated around assistance rather than autonomous purchasing. Consumers are most comfortable using AI to find deals or coupons (37%), compare products (36%), track prices (29%) and summarize reviews (27%). Only 8% expect to make most of their BFCM purchases within an AI tool.

That's an important distinction for retailers planning for agentic commerce. AI is already influencing consideration, but widespread delegation of the transaction itself is not yet evident in this research.

Across the findings, one message emerges: BFCM 2026 won't simply be a contest for the biggest promotion. Consumers are prepared to search, compare, wait and signal what they want before buying.

For retailers, the opportunity is to get better at recognizing those signals, and turn them into relevant experiences at the moments when shoppers are ready to act.